Ozekhome warns Tinubu could lose 2027 election amid soaring cost of living

Ozekhome warns Tinubu could lose 2027 election amid soaring cost of living

Politics

Oct 6 2025

8

When Mike Ozekhome, Senior Advocate of Nigeria warned that the nation’s deepening cost‑of‑living crisis could topple President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, the comment sparked a fresh round of political speculation across Nigeria. Speaking to The PUNCH on 4 October 2025, Ozekhome said the “misery and disenchantment on the ground” were building a force capable of “easing him out of power”. The stakes are high: a potential coalition between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and 2023 Labour Party frontrunner Peter Obi could turn that force into a decisive opposition bloc.

Rising Discontent and Economic Strain

Since Tinubu took office in May 2023, inflation has consistently hovered above 30 %, while the naira has lost roughly 40 % of its value against the dollar. A recent poll by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that 68 % of respondents rated their personal finances as “worse than a year ago”. The price of basic staples such as rice and daal has surged by double‑digit percentages, leaving many families scrambling to meet daily needs.

Human rights lawyer Abdul Mahmud described the government’s approach as “neo‑imperialist”, arguing that foreign‑linked subsidies and subsidy removals have disproportionately harmed low‑income earners. “Nigerians have suffered enough under Tinubu and will continue to suffer as he proceeds with his neo‑imperialist economic policies,” Mahmud told the newspaper.

Ozekhome’s Warning and the Power of Opposition Unity

Ozekhome’s assessment wasn’t just a legal cavil; he framed it as a constitutional risk. He reminded listeners that “when power is concentrated in one hand for too long, the fabric of democracy begins to fray”. He drew a parallel with the United States, where a two‑party system forces regular alternation of power. "We should have such a template where there is no dominant power bloc," he added.

He also pointed out that opposition parties in Nigeria have historically been fragmented – the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), and the newly revived Social Democratic Party (SDP) each command distinct regional bases. If they can overcome their rivalries, the combined vote share could eclipse the incumbent’s support, even with the president’s control over state apparatus.

Potential Alliance: Atiku and Obi

Potential Alliance: Atiku and Obi

Rumours of a joint front between Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have been circulating since early September 2025. Atiku, who lost narrowly to Tinubu in the 2023 presidential race, has hinted at a “strategic partnership” aimed at consolidating anti‑incumbent votes. Obi, who captured a strong urban middle‑class vote in 2023, has publicly said that “the future of Nigeria depends on a united opposition that can offer a credible alternative”.

Political analysts note that the two men bring complementary strengths: Atiku’s extensive network among agrarian northern states and Obi’s appeal to the southern professional class. Should they formalise a coalition, the resulting bloc could command over 45 % of the electorate, according to a poll conducted by the Lagos Institute of Electoral Studies on 2 October 2025.

Tinubu’s Grip on State Institutions

Despite the growing unrest, Ozekhome cautioned that Tinubu still “controls virtually every apparatus of state power”. The president’s party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), holds a majority in both chambers of the National Assembly and occupies key ministries, including Finance, Interior, and Information. Moreover, the Security Service (DSS) and the Nigerian Police have been accused of targeting opposition rallies with heavy-handed tactics.

Legal experts argue that any opposition breakthrough will not only require a united front but also a strategic legal challenge to curb the misuse of state resources. Ozekhome suggested filing constitutional petitions to contest alleged irregularities in the 2023 election, as well as pushing for reforms that would strengthen the independence of the judiciary.

Broader Implications for Nigerian Democracy

Broader Implications for Nigerian Democracy

If a cohesive opposition emerges, the 2027 election could become a watershed moment, potentially resetting the balance of power after two consecutive APC terms. International observers have warned that continued economic mismanagement could trigger capital flight, further devaluing the naira and deepening poverty.

Conversely, a failure to coalesce may cement Tinubu’s grip, allowing him to cement policies that critics label as “neo‑imperialist” and risk alienating younger voters who are increasingly tech‑savvy and outspoken on social media. The stakes are not just electoral; they touch on Nigeria’s long‑term stability as Africa’s most populous economy.

  • Key Fact: Inflation has stayed above 30 % since 2023.
  • Polling shows 68 % of Nigerians dissatisfied with living standards.
  • Potential Atiku‑Obi coalition could capture >45 % of votes.
  • President Tinubu controls a majority in both legislative chambers.
  • 2027 election (Nigerian General Election 2027) could reshape the political landscape.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the main economic issues driving opposition momentum?

Inflation above 30 %, a 40 % decline in the naira’s value, and soaring food prices have left many households struggling. Surveys show over two‑thirds of Nigerians feel their standard of living has worsened, fueling anger toward Tinubu’s policies.

Who are the key opposition figures potentially uniting for 2027?

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi are the most talked‑about duo. Both have sizable regional bases and have signaled willingness to form a strategic partnership.

How does President Tinubu maintain control over state institutions?

The APC holds a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, and key ministries remain under loyalists. Security agencies have also been accused of suppressing opposition activities, making legal challenges essential for any credible contest.

What could happen if the opposition fails to unite?

A fragmented opposition would likely split the anti‑incumbent vote, allowing Tinubu to win a second term despite economic woes. Continued policies labeled as neo‑imperialist could deepen poverty and trigger further capital flight.

When is the next general election scheduled?

Nigeria’s next presidential and legislative elections are slated for 25 February 2027, a date that will determine whether the country continues under APC rule or shifts to a new coalition.

tag: Nigeria Bola Tinubu Mike Ozekhome 2027 election economic hardship

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8 Comments
  • Wesley Nakamatsu

    Wesley Nakamatsu

    The current disaffection among the Nigerian electorate is a direct corollary of the administration's predilection for external fiscal scaffolding. When sovereign monetary instruments are supplanted by foreign‑linked subsidies, the inherent volatility inevitably percolates to the populace. Such a trajectory contravenes the fundamental precepts of fiscal autonomy cherished by any democratic polity. Consequently, the erosion of purchasing power constitutes not merely an economic malaise but a subversive affront to constitutional equilibrium. It is therefore incumbent upon the opposition to articulate a cogent alternative before the 2027 electoral juncture.

    October 6, 2025 AT 04:43

  • Nelleke Elston

    Nelleke Elston

    Look, blaming everything on the cost‑of‑living crisis feels a bit over‑simplified, especially when you consider that political inertia often outpaces economic metrics. The youth are tuning in to digital narratives that celebrate entrepreneurship, not just lamenting price hikes. Moreover, the alleged “neo‑imperialist” label ignores the fact that many policy choices are locally driven, even if they happen to echo global trends. In short, the electorate’s mood is shaped by a tapestry of hopes and frustrations, not a single thread.

    October 7, 2025 AT 02:56

  • Daniel Craine

    Daniel Craine

    Seriously, the numbers don’t lie, inflation above thirty percent, naira down forty percent, food prices soaring, families scrambling – it’s a perfect storm, a textbook case of macroeconomic mismanagement, and the political fallout is inevitable, especially when opposition factions finally decide to stop bickering and present a united front, which, by the way, could recalibrate the power balance in Abuja, and that’s exactly what we need to watch for.

    October 8, 2025 AT 01:10

  • Kristen VanPamel

    Kristen VanPamel

    The state of democracy resembles a fragile glass, each crack a grievance, each fracture a warning. When power concentrates, the glass shatters under its own weight. Unity among opposition is the glue that can hold the fragments together. Without it, the whole structure collapses into oblivion.

    October 8, 2025 AT 23:23

  • Gayleen Lowrie

    Gayleen Lowrie

    It’s understandable to feel overwhelmed by the headlines, but remember that collective action has historically turned the tide in many societies. Encourage your peers to stay informed, discuss policy alternatives, and consider volunteering for grassroots initiatives that promote transparency. Small, consistent efforts often accumulate into significant change, especially as the 2027 election approaches.

    October 9, 2025 AT 21:36

  • Tyler Tucker

    Tyler Tucker

    This drama is getting out of hand.

    October 10, 2025 AT 19:50

  • julia mutambara

    julia mutambara

    When we examine the broader narrative surrounding Nigeria’s political landscape, it becomes evident that economic strain is only one facet of a complex mosaic. The inflationary surge, while alarming, interacts with structural challenges such as inadequate infrastructure, uneven educational opportunities, and regional disparities that have persisted for decades. Historical patterns show that when citizens perceive systemic neglect, the resulting disenchantment can catalyze collective movements demanding accountability. In the case of the upcoming 2027 election, the potential alliance between Atiku and Obi represents a strategic convergence of northern agrarian influence with southern entrepreneurial vigor. This melding of constituencies could reshape campaign rhetoric, shifting the focus from partisan sloganeering to policy‑driven discourse. Furthermore, the role of civil society organizations cannot be understated; they serve as watchdogs, amplifying grassroots concerns and fostering voter education. The media, both traditional and digital, plays a dual role, at times sensationalizing crises while also providing platforms for nuanced debate. International observers have hinted that sustained economic mismanagement may trigger capital flight, thereby compounding the fiscal deficit and limiting governmental capacity to fund public services. Such dynamics underscore the importance of a transparent electoral process, where electoral bodies operate free from partisan interference. Legal scholars suggest that constitutional petitions, as highlighted by Ozekhome, could serve as a check on executive overreach, but success hinges on an independent judiciary. The opposition’s ability to present a coherent, policy‑focused manifesto could attract voters disillusioned by generic promises. Meanwhile, the incumbent’s control over legislative chambers offers both a strategic advantage and a potential vulnerability, as any perceived abuse of power may galvanize protest. The youth demographic, increasingly connected via social media, wields considerable influence in shaping public opinion, especially when they mobilize around issues like unemployment and digital freedom. As the election draws nearer, campaign financing will become a focal point, with transparency in funding sources critical to maintaining public trust. Lastly, the outcome of this electoral contest will not merely determine the next president but will set a precedent for how Nigeria navigates the nexus of economic policy, democratic governance, and societal cohesion for years to come.

    October 11, 2025 AT 18:03

  • aishwarya singh

    aishwarya singh

    I’ve been watching the discussions unfold, and it seems like most people are just waiting to see if the Atiku‑Obi partnership can actually lock down the northern and southern votes. If they pull it off, the balance of power could shift pretty fast, but the real test will be whether they can keep the coalition together once they’re in the trenches.

    October 12, 2025 AT 16:16

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